What the presidential race means for Tennessee

This has been a very entertaining Republican primary. We have seen the social conservatives battle the economic conservatives as the libertarians fight against both of the other arms of the Republican Party. Democrats have always been jealous of the way Republicans can just fall in line and do what's best for their party. Now it seems that the Republican Party is splintering into three rather contentious factions and this can only be a good thing for the Democrats nationally.

The economy is improving and more importantly average Americans seem to be able to feel that it is improving. President Obama's approval ratings are on the increase and his possible opponents haven't shown that they could run a national campaign that would impress independents and conservative Democrats along with Republicans. Right now things look very good for President Obama although he could take a serious hit if the current unrest in the Middle East were to escalate and send gasoline prices higher at a faster rate than they are already rising. All in all, at the moment at least, it looks like President Obama is well on his way to being re-elected. So what does this mean for elections in my home state of Tennessee?

Tennessee is a very conservative state, we have large numbers of conservative Republicans, conservative independents, and even conservative Democrats. President Obama is not a terribly popular president here with consistently lower approval ratings and higher dis-approval ratings in state wide polls than are seen in national polls. We have quite a few socially conservative Republicans in Tennessee and they are a driving force in our state politics. If you are not from Tennessee you may have still heard of recent legislation that has come up in my state. The "Don't Say Gay Bill", a bill to legislate which public restrooms have to be used by transgender persons that was introduced by Richard Floyd, a state representative who threatened to "stomp a mudhole" in a transgender woman who tried to use the same restroom as one of his female relatives. Last year a bill was passed, not to make it illegal to discriminate against gays and lesbians but instead to make it illegal to pass any laws that would make it illegal to discriminate against gays and lesbians. Yes, the social conservatives are a powerful group in Tennessee. So how does this relate to the presidential election?

If Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination I doubt that you will hear a lot of cheers from social conservatives. His stances on gay rights and abortion have varied, seemingly based on geography more than anything else. As governor of a liberal state, Massachusetts, he was pro gay rights and pro choice. When he decided to run for president in 2008 we found that his feelings on these issues had changed dramatically. I have no problem with a politician studying an issue and finding that over time his or her opinions have changed, but Romney's conversion seems a bit too politically convenient to accept as a simple change of heart. Because of this social conservatives simply don't trust him and no matter how much they would like to see Obama defeated in November I doubt they will get overly excited about a Romney presidency and many of them simply won't make the effort to get out to the polls and vote. In a state like Tennessee this is good news for Democrats, possibly the best news they could get.

Of course Romney may not get the Republican nomination. He has been a fundraising powerhouse but he has also shown himself to be a pathetic campaigner. He has committed one gaff after another, and at a time when America is leaning more and more toward some version of populism Romney says that corporations are people and that he enjoys firing people. This is not an effective way to convince voters to support you. One of his opponents, however, has been very effective at speaking to his base of socially conservative supporters. He has been ideologically consistent throughout his political career. He has problems, while in the Senate he was a major user of earmarks and as an incumbent suffered a major loss to Democrat Bob Casey who received 59% of the vote compared to Santorum's 41%. Santorum's name returns an interesting if rather crude result when googled because of statements he has made against gay marriage. But he has a strong, large, and growing groups of supporters who are willing to overlook his shortcomings. He is a polarizing figure and that's exactly why he could be so important to state elections in Tennessee.

While Romney might not be able to excite social conservatives enough to get them to turn out at the polls in large numbers Santorum can. The chances of Santorum winning the general election against President Obama are very slim, but his impact in Tennessee can't be doubted. Social conservatives in Tennessee, if Santorum wins the nomination, would not only be able to vote against Obama, they would be able to vote for a candidate that firmly agrees with them on the issues they hold most dear. While in the voting booth they won't be just voting for a presidential candidate, they will also be voting for state representatives and senators and they could effectively eliminate any legislative opposition to the radical and extremist social legislation that has been pushed on our state since Republicans took over the state house, senate, and governor's office two years ago. We may need to change our states name from Tennessee to Theocressee.

As someone who believes in smaller government, especially when it comes to the government being in our homes and bedrooms, as someone who believes in economic growth, and who also understands that making it illegal to acknowledge the existence of homosexuals in our schools does not create jobs, a Rick Santorum candidacy in the general election scares me to death. When you drive into our state you see a sign that says "Welcome to the Great State of Tennessee" not the "great, conservative, medieval thinking, you aren't welcome if you don't agree with us, State of Tennessee" and I am willing to do what I can to make sure we don't get any closer to our state putting a new slogan on our "welcome" signs. We are already traveling down that road at a speed that seems far from safe to me and it is up to us to put up a speed trap and pull over the individuals who are drunk with unrestrained power and driving us down this dark and dangerous road. We must all get ready for a fight to keep Tennessee a place for all Tennesseans. We must remember that every vote counts and that every voice needs to be heard. We must be willing to use our voices to show our friends and family the danger of a state run unopposed by theocratic ideologues who want to force their beliefs down our throats leaving us no other choice than accept their bigotry masquerading as religion or move to another state. Of course if we move they can continue increasing their political power unopposed and finding ways to spread it to other areas of the country. Knowing that we have only one real choice, stay and fight for the kind of state and the kind of country our Founding Fathers obviously hoped to create. I'll be here standing up to the oppression. I hope to look around and see my friends standing with me.