Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Missouri, Montana, Colorado, and the Tea Party.

Last night was interesting to say the least. Pundits all over the internet and the airwaves are discussing the ramifications of last night's primaries and how they will effect the selection of the republican nominee. Well let me join in and do the same thing.

Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and Newt Gingrich have all been working hard to become the Tea Party candidate in this set of primaries, I think we found out who won that contest last night. Gingrich and Paul both have problems when it comes to speaking to the evangelical side of many Tea Party members. Paul is not overtly evangelical and seems to base most of his policy ideas on a populist form of libertarianism. This is not a bad thing, it does appeal to many Tea Party members, but it has considerably less appeal among more traditional Republicans and is even less of a draw to the general electorate. Gingrich combines a more traditionally conservative outlook on economics with strong words about faith and family. However Gingrich's past has caused many evangelicals to doubt the veracity of his faith credentials and more traditional Republicans are worried about Gingrich's history of uneven and spontaneously combustible governance. This leaves Santorum.

Rick Santorum has all the street cred any candidate could ever need to claim the title of "culture warrior" and he wears this title as a badge of honor. His fiscal policies are also conservative enough to appeal to traditional Republicans while being acceptable to Tea Party members. He seems to have it all and, as we saw last night, his appeal has now been noticed by voters in 4 states, which if we are counting states, puts him ahead of Mitt Romney in this race. Romney however still has one advantage that is keeping him going in this fight, presumed electabilty in the general election.

Santorum's evangelical gravitas, which is serving him very well in the primaries, is seen as very worrisome in a general election. Will independent voters support someone who believes our nation should be run based as much on the Bible as it is on our Constitution? Romney may have his own religious issue but his more moderate stance, at least that seems to be the general perception, on issues of faith and economics is seen by the Republican establishment to have broader appeal in a general election. I think they might be wrong.

Let's face facts, Mitt Romney has run a very well funded but poorly executed campaign. He has been a gaff factory since he started stumping and to many people, Republicans, Democrats, and independents, appears to be little more than a wealthy elitist with little or no connection to the average middle class American. Sadly I believe this elitism may also be why the Republican establishment is so forcefully behind Romney. Santorum is a completely different kind of animal though. He didn't grow up wealthy, he became successful but not so successful that we feel we can't trust him. He wears his faith on his sleeve like many Americans do, he is, in other words, someone many Americans can relate to.

This should make Santorum a viable candidate against President Obama who can seem a bit aloof and elitist himself. I also believe that Santorum will enjoy a considerable momentum after last night's contest and could possibly consolidate the support of the Tea Party behind his campaign. I know the Tea Party would love to find a candidate they can get behind so they can show their power in a nation wide contest the way they already have in many House and Senate elections. But while Santorum may be a more electable candidate than Romney, is he electable enough?

If the Tea Party rallies behind Santorum and he wins the Republican nomination it will show, beyond a doubt, the Tea Party's influence, but only their influence within the Republican Party. If Santorum wins the nomination and fails to win the general election, his stances in the culture war could back fire on him and being primarily known for work on social issues instead of economic issues is not where you want to be in this election, it would show that the Tea Party has limited influence outside of the Republican Party. This is make or break time for the Tea Party although I don't know if they realize it yet. I think we are in for a very interesting next few months.

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